Have I made enough bad predictions these past few weeks? Am I done making a fool of myself? Heck no — I live for this stuff.
So continuing with our theme of friday political predictions, it’s time to look at who might challenge the mayor for the city’s top job in 2011. But this time, rather than go it alone, I called one of the few people in the city that thinks about this stuff as often as I do, brother-in-shaved head Andy Peterson of the Duluth Chamber of Commerce.
"Is it too early to think about this?" he asked.
"Probably," I said. "But it’s never really too early to think about this stuff."
"Yeah, you’re right," he said.
And so here we go, predicting who will survive the primary to go head-to-head against the mayor in 2011 (and once again, this is all based on speculation — no real journalistic work went into this):
Mayoral challengers of the past we’re all 99.9 percent sure won’t run again (Hey, Jordan came back):
* Charlie Bell — said he won’t. I believe him.
* Herb Bergson — Nah.
* Greg Gilbert — I think he’s had his fill.Odds any of them will run again: .1 percent
Current city councilors:
* Jim Stauber — He lost in the 2003 primary, and had a chance to run in 2007, but passed, feeling he couldn’t win. He still hasn’t officially announced he’s running for re-election for city council. If he loses, he’s out. And while he’s currently the most vocal critic of the mayor on the council, he’s also one of the most politically aware — he generally knows when he’s picking fights he can’t win. "I think he’s come to the point where he thinks he can’t win," Peterson said. I’ll buy that. Odds of running: 5 percent
* Garry Krause — The most independent of the councilors, who clearly enjoys city politics. And because no one really has any idea what he’ll do, whether he’ll run is anybody’s guess. But he would face three major challenges: 1) campaigning for mayor becomes a full-time job, and he’s got one of those already (he’s a dean at, I think, UWS) and 2) who’s his base? Where does the money and city-wide support come from and 3) like Stauber, he first needs to be re-elected to the council. As of yet, he hasn’t announced if he’ll run again. I wonder if he faces a Pawlenty-like dilemma: run for governor and lose, and you can’t run for president, so maybe don’t run for governor. Maybe Krause should sit the council election out if he wants to run for mayor? Odds of running: 5 percent
* Jay Fosle/Todd Fedora — Both are considered conservative councilors, and either would be attractive to those supporters. Fosle is a great face-to-face campaigner, but isn’t the world’s best public speaker (sorry, Jay, but you know I’m right) add that to problems raising the money needed and ability to gain voters on the east side of town, and I don’t see it; for awhile last year it seemed like Fedora was positioning himself as the defacto opponent. But he’s quieted lately and he’s probably seen by many as too divisive and too conservative. Also: see above re: already having a job. Odds either of them run: 10 percent. "I think you’re right," Peterson said. Hey look — I’m right!
* Sharla Gardner/Jeff Anderson/Tony Cuneo — "There’s a growing divide between the pro-union and the not pro-union," Peterson said. If Ness has a weakness, it’s that he has lukewarm if not get-away-from-me support from the unions. The building trades, for example, are fuming that the mayor is hiring 10 employees to do road repair work — the unions believe that should go to them. Gardner/Anderson/Cuneo on the other hand enjoy union support, and could be pushed by them come election time. But would any of the three seriously challenge or even want the job? I don’t see it. I think the only person who has the public speaking skill, charisma and ability to raise the needed money would be Anderson (the guy’s an ad rep — he raises money for a living), but he has a job and I can’t envision him taking the risk of running for mayor. Odds any of them do it: 10 percent
The Andy Peterson dark horse:
* Scott Keenan — During the last election, Peterson said Keenan told him that he would one day like to run, after he retired from being the exec. director of Grandma’s Marathon. "He told me he might get serious about it the next time around," Peterson said. Keenan would have a chance — he’s thought of as conservative, is well-liked and well-known, has city political experience, and could raise the money. The more I think about it, the more it makes sense that he’ll at least get strong pushes to run and could be a vial. Odds he runs: 15 percent
No one viable takes a shot:
Right now, this is my best guess. And look — Peterson says I’m right again. "It’s going to take a huge misstep by the mayor for people to say he doesn’t belong there," Peterson said. "And right now I don’t believe that’s happened."
The mayor is generally a middle-of-the-road democrat, which is generally where you’ll find most Duluth voters. He has primarily focused on solving the city’s budget crisis, fixing the city’s streets and has stayed away from issues that could get him in hot political water (like building aquariums and using city funds for supportive housing). If you’re running against the mayor, what issues do you hit him with? That the city is in too much debt? Yes, but he can counter that he’s enacted a streets plan to get the city of out bonding. Retiree health care? He can say that he’s worked tirelessly to find compromises with retirees while his hands were tied with the lawsuit. That the administration has lacked transparency and made a few bad personnel moves? Sure, but that’s not an issue that wins many votes.
When I lived in Chicago, I remember being at a press conference held by Mayor Richard Daley when the election was only a month or so away and he was asked about his candidate. I doubt Daley could cite his name — he was so entrenched in the city, so well connected and has cut off so many roads to run against him that most residents just think of him as mayor for life.
It’s way, way, way too early (way) to say if Ness has become that. But anyone running against him in 2011 faces an uphill battle in a way not seen since the days of Gary Doty.
Odds of no viable candidate: 50 percent
Brandon, would you know if there are any political polls conducted for approval ratings in Duluth?
Jim, so far as I know the only poll done on the mayor was last year by a UMD class, which found decent approval ratings. But professional polls are incredibly expensive — up to $10k — so figuring out someone’s popularity is difficult.
If I had to pick who I’d like to see run, by far it’d be Fedora or Bell.
What ticks me off the most is how non-resident college kids are allowed to vote in our city elections. They’re up here for four or five 9 month stretches, then are right back down to the Twin Cities.
Little Effer will ride the wave of his notoriety straight into the mayor’s office.
The Effer/Ness debates will feature a lot of wrinkled noses, bared front teeth and chittering–and then of course you will have Little Effer’s replies.
It’s sad that Sharla Gardner is the only woman on the radar to run.
ASHLEY FOR MAYOR 2011!
No matter who runs, it won’t matter anyways. Special interest groups and unions will have all the stroke; and we’ll continue to send numbskulls down to St. Paul who say they’ll bring us tons of jobs, but in the end do nothing.
Well in my humble opinion I would prefer someone who is a grappler and that person would be Neill Atkins. Neill is someone who would fight for all of us and not just for the few like some candidates do when they sell their souls for a seat, be it mayoral or council. So lets call Neill and tell him “run Neill run, run Neill run”.
I find it interesting that you ask Andy Peterson of the Chamber these questions. The Chamber’s endorsement has been the kiss of death in Local Politics for some time. So much so that the Chamber stopped endorsing in local races a few elections ago. So aksing Andy Peterson about local politics is like asking the lamp post about the weather.
Good point Eric! Why does the media continue to act as if the Chamber has any local political clout? They haven’t picked a winner in a long time, and their support does not help candidates. Based on the track record and his position on local issues, which has generally been opposite the majority, what does Andy Peterson know that makes him so important to this discussion? The Chamber is an organization supported by a minority of local businesses, and certainly without any link to the general voting community.
What the heck does the CoC do, besides pat themselves on the back anyways?
I think *I* should run for mayor! Why, you ask?
1. I have name recognition. Like Donny.
2. I support Duluth labor and the Duluth firefighters, so they might endorse me.
3. I support the train.
4. I believe in maintaining what makes Duluth attractive, instead of letting it go to hell and then wondering why no one wants to move here.
5. The DCBers fear me.
6. I can kick both Todd Fedora’s ass *and* Danny G’s ass, even though they’re both 5x my size.
Seriously, Don is doing a better job than i thought he would. I think you are right, unless he screws up, he’s in for another term. He’s pretty much the Teflon mayor.
I’ll run on a Liquor in Lakeside platform.